What ROAS do you actually need to be profitable?

Standard ROAS = revenue / ad spend. It ignores COGS (40-60% of revenue), payment fees (2.9% + 30¢), fulfillment ($5-15/order), refunds (5-15%), and packaging. Real margin ROAS adjusts for all five. A 3x "ROAS" can be a 0.7x net loss.

For typical Shopify stores with 50% gross margin + 12% all-in fees: break-even ROAS = ~2.4x. For stores with 30% margin (supplements, beauty pre-rebate): break-even = 4x+. The calculator does this math per your inputs.

Three levers, ordered by impact: (1) Raise AOV via cross-sell + bundles (post-purchase upsell flow = 12-18% AOV lift). (2) Cut COGS via supplier renegotiation or volume discount. (3) Cut fulfillment via 3PL switch or pick-and-pack consolidation.

Break-even = you make $0 net. Target = healthy net margin (15-25% typical). Most stores should target 1.5-2x their break-even ROAS to leave room for fixed costs (software, salaries, returns). Calculator shows both numbers.

No — calculator focuses on variable cost per order (COGS, fees, fulfillment). Fixed SaaS costs spread across all orders; once you know break-even ROAS at variable level, layer fixed-cost amortization on top for true profitability.

First-order ROAS is what your ad platform reports. LTV ROAS = first-order revenue + future repeat order revenue. Repeat-friendly stores (subscriptions, beauty, supplements) can run negative first-order ROAS profitably because LTV pays back.

Above 4x = tight margin stack. Common causes: high COGS (supplements at 35% margin), low AOV ($30-50), expensive 3PL ($12/order on $40 AOV). Fix by raising AOV first; every $10 AOV lift drops break-even ROAS by ~0.4x.

Calculator gives blended break-even. Per-channel: Google Shopping typically reports cleaner ROAS (intent-based). Meta inflates ROAS via view-through attribution. Cut view-through, then apply this calculator per channel.

Yes. A 15% refund rate on $80 AOV with $35 COGS = $5.25 wasted per order (COGS + return shipping). Across 1,000 orders = $5,250 destroyed margin. Worse: refunded orders count as revenue in ROAS, hiding the bleed.

Mandeep Singh, Sprout Sage Solutions. I do Shopify CRO + paid-channel audits for medspa, wellness, and beauty brands. The margin stack is the math I show every prospect before quoting a retainer.